Strolling along the North Embarcadero Water Front is one of the most relaxing and enjoyable things to do while in Downtown San Diego.  This stretch of walking path extends all the way up to Harbor and Shelter Islands.  On the half mile stretch of Harbor Blvd. between The Cruise Ship Terminal and Hawthorne Blvd., you may have noticed very unique art projects in the form of “Urban Trees”.  This exhibit is actually 31 uniquely designed sculptural projects awarded to some of the best local artists that San Diego has to offer.  Here is a quote taken directly from The Port of San Diego website: “Artists were invited to apply their creative energies to the design of artistic trees to add color, form, interest and fun to the waterfront.”  This project actually represents “Urban Tree Exhibit 5”, and is part of the Port of San Diego’s commitment to their Public Art Program along the San Diego waterfront.  This project allows both tourists and locals alike to have unique “experiences” through art as you enjoy the Bay and Waterfront all at the same time.  A couple of weeks ago we did a blog about this project in general.  Please use the link to review The Port of San Diego Public Art Video and the really interesting video that accompanies it. 
The following link showcases information about this current exhibit of URBAN TREES.  It has beautiful representations of the trees themselves, and information about the artists who created them. 
The following two links are of articles from The Port of San Diego website that give more detailed information about the project, and the unveiling ceremony that took place a couple of weeks ago:  New Season of Urban Trees Coming Soon to the North Embarcadero, and Urban Trees 5 Unveiled.   This is such a unique experience to living and/or visiting Downtown San Diego.  I encourage everyone to have their own wonderful experience.  Should you take me up on my advice, we would love to hear about it with comments.  What was your favorite Tree?  I know mine. 

Parks are a vital part to downtown and urban living…a concrete jungle does not suffice.  Open spaces where city-dwellers can bike, run, bring their dogs and families, read, nap, or just enjoy some greenery really enriches a city environment.  We have Balboa Park here in San Diego that is world renowned for its size, beauty and diversity, but there are so many buildings going up in downtown!  Not to fear. 

The recently developed Downtown Community Plan takes sensitivity to this.  This plan calls for downtown to add more than 50 acres of open space to the existing 75 acres.  The plan has prioritized seven new public open spaces that will reside centrally in each of downtown’s various neighborhoods that will put every downtown resident within a ten minute walk from public open space. 

The Downtown Community Plan outlines four types of open space that will enrich the downtown area as well as the quality of life for its residents and visitors:

1. Parks
‘Parks consist of large expanses of open space which are designed for active recreational and leisurely activities, as well as gatherings and events. Building height restrictions on southern and western blocks will allow infiltration of sunlight, and prevent heavy shading of the parks year round. Additionally, many new parks will contain underground parking, as a creative solution to increase downtown’s parking capacity.’

2. Plazas & Pocket Parks
‘Flexible spaces and plazas, in conjunction with development projects, can serve as privately owned and maintained public space. Smaller “pocket parks,” with seating and landscaping, connect larger parks and create a linkage of green space. Linear “finger parks” can also be built along fault lines, to take advantage of otherwise unbuildable land. Many new buildings will also take advantage of the density bonuses granted to developers who design “green roofs” into their buildings, or landscaped tops that help reduce building runoff and improve water quality.’
 

3. Green Streets
‘Designated green streets will serve as paths connecting downtown parks, the waterfront, neighborhood centers and other activity centers. Wider sidewalks and richer landscaping on these streets will extend the open space presence through the neighborhoods.’
 

4. Freeway Lids
‘’Lids’ are envisaged to reconnect downtown to Balboa Park and Sherman Heights, spanning the I-5 in select locations and providing new open spaces to serve downtown and surrounding neighborhoods.’
 

5. Future Parks
‘CCDC has made the creation of open space and parks a priority. Several new parks are in the pipeline to compliment the existing space, and provide even more opportunity for rest, relaxation and recreation.’

Click here to view a map of existing downtown San Diego Parks and future open space project locations. 

All information from CCDC.com

A couple months back we did a blog on The North Embarcadero Visionary Plan (NVP). This project is so completely instrumental in shaping the face of San Diego, therefore, it is important to have a refresher blog with some updated information. If you are a current San Diego resident, or a potential one, you must check this out. This represents the evolution of Downtown San Diego and in turn values of your urban home.

A major point of this project is to “Green” San Diego’s Bay. The concrete and asphalt that dominate the SD Bay waterfront, under the NVP, will undergo close to $250 million in public improvements. From Lindbergh Field to Seaport Village (1.2 mile stretch) the waterfront will be transformed with shops, cafes, gardens, lawns, paths, palm trees, plaza, art, piers, and a bustling cruise ship terminal. The Port of San Diego, CCDC, and the City of San Diego created to a Joint Powers Agreement (JPA) that will provide for the development of a phasing and financing plan, and the completetion of the design and construction for the project. The Port and CCDC will share all costs, and are still identifying potential funding sources. So, check out this video for a comprehensive look at what the plans entails and a brief overview of key areas below the video.

The Point
A lighted sculpture and a wind-turbine sculpture

The Crescent
The pedestrian and bike path will be enhanced with a low curving wall and landscaping

Grape Street Pier and Piazza
Floating docks will be built and a series of staircases and ramps will lead to the water for observing sea life.

The Wharf
Paving along the wharf will have colorful night lighting

The Lawns
Green expanses will be established for recreation or ship viewing, as well a space for civic events.

Tavern on the Bay
Areas of shade will be created with seating a gardens

Market Square at B Street Pier
Sail-like structures will shade pedestrians and cruise ship passengers

Formal Groves
Lush plots of gardens with exotic plants, hedges and movable chairs

The Cove
A Memorial Walk will be created linking existing memorials between the Navy Pier and G Street in a park-like setting. A sycamore forest with paths lined with desert boulders and native plants will be created

Broadway: The Hall
Broadway, downtown San Diego’s main street, will be widened as it nears the water creating a plaza and festival area, as well as a public viewing platform and other improvements to the Broadway Pier.

All information from CCDC and Port of San Diego Websites as well as Union Tribune

The above link will take you to a YouTube video featuring Rob Quigley, design architect for the new downtown central library. The library will be located east of 11th Ave between J & K streets.Mr. Quigley provided a quick update about the status of the library this Friday morning (June 6th) during a “Coffee with Nancy” CCDC update hosted by the Children’s Museum this morning at 8 am. Mr. Quigley added that the library is now only less than $17 million away from being a reality and to “feel free” to support this initiative by considering making a generous donation after watching the video.

More info can be found on the City of San Diego website and at www.CCDC.com Enjoy! -Pete

San Diego County is filled with such diversity.  There are over 90 sub communities that make up the Real Estate Residential Market.  Each individual sub market performs based on its specific price points and location.  I guess it should stop surprising me that performance of high-end product and very average product are continually generalized together.  Investors who made bad choices buying average real estate in average locations broke the most basic of all value rules: LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION.  Investors who made good choices buying quality product in desirable locations “weathered the storm” quite well. 

Alin Nevin of Marketpointe Real Estate Advisors has written a very “eye opening” article that sheds some light on the inequity of distressed properties in San Diego.  Consider the following facts that he outlines in his article  What Housing Recession?:

1. 70% of homes in California are in counties closest to the ocean where foreclosures are limited
2. 2/3 of all foreclosures in the 1st quarter of 2008 occurred in 20 of the 90 sub communities in San Diego county.
3. 700 of the 1,100 foreclosures were in these 20 communities…all of them inland. 
4. In another 20 of those 90 communities, absolutely NO foreclosures were recorded. 
5. The 10 communities with the highest level of forclosures averaged $394k
6. The 10 communities with the lowest level of forclosures averaged $1.6 million.

We can see the same kind of trends here in Downtown San Diego.  We now know that smaller units in quality buildings gain equity at the same rate as the penthouses in the same complex.  Conversely, Penthouses in average buildings lose value at the same rate as tiny studios.  Consider this…If you remove 4 complexes from consideration, we are able to eliminate over 80% of all distressed properties from the Downtown sub-market.  In the last 6 months, 66 urban homes have sold for $775k or higher.  More than half of those sales were above $1 million. 

The bottom line for Downtown is:  Unless you are a buyer looking to purchase in 1 of the 4 troubled complexes,  sellers are NOT panic selling.  The best complexes Downtown have, and will continue to have strong value.  The decision in buying a Downtown home is not solely price driven.  Other factors like quality, location, and construction materials mean so much more to the future value of your investment. 

Written By Pete Thistle w/ 92101 Urban Living

Title: Q1 2008 Buying Trends nosing up in Downtown San Diego

A little more than a week ago, I was walking down 10th Ave behind an overconfident baseball fan of the visiting team at Petco Park. They pointed to a FOR SALE sign and commented on how San Diego was a distressed and struggling real estate market. “These sellers would probably take ANY offer,” one of them said. “I’m going to wait until the end of the year when people are really desperate. No one is buying anything here right now.”

This might be the best example of deductive reasoning I have seen in a long time. While many areas of the nation are facing the housing “crisis” that CNN and the Today Show readily report on, it doesn’t necessarily mean that all areas of the nation are in crisis.

Buyers are out there in the downtown 92101 area…and they are buying! The Q1 2008 sales data found in the paragraphs below supports this notion and suggests that there are not as many fence-sitters timing the market as the occasional downtown visitor may think.

92101 SALES DATA FOR Q1 2008
On Thursday April 10th, 2008, Market Pointe Realty Advisor’s President and CEO Russ Valone presented a very well organized compilation of 92101 sales, inventory and pricing data to a large group of downtown realtors at the weekly caravan. In his 14-page PowerPoint presentation, Russ indicated that the number of condo re-sales in 92101 alone (excluding new condo sales) rose to a total of 38 condos during the month of March 2008. That’s up 23% from February’s 31 re-sales and 12% to 15% up from December and January’s numbers of 34 and 33 re-sales respectively.

BUT…Aren’t those early winter months the slowest of the year by comparison?

Not so according to a statistical analysis of re-sales in 92101 from January 2007 through March 2008. Of the 572 re-sales sold during this timeframe, the 15-month 92101 average re-sale activity is 38.13 homes per month!

Even the infamous “days-on-market” average for downtown 92101 is on its way down from an eight-year quarterly high of 92 days to just 71 days in Q1 2008!

BUT…What about those new condo sales, you ask?

The inventory of new condos that are still for sale is diminishing at a far greater pace than that which was predicted two years ago. New condo sales (i.e. the sales in which new condo owners actually closed escrow) were up in March 2008 to their highest point of 34 since June 2007! This kind of sales activity defies the most recent 15-month average of 29.53 new condo sales closed per month. I guess not as many buyers have backed out of their advance condo purchase as some may have speculated.

BUT…Can’t statistical sales averages be manipulated to say just about anything?

The numbers don’t lie in favor of these arguments. The 15-month average of 29.53 new condo sales per month was weighted by months like February 2007 when a whopping 82 new condo sales closed escrow during the opening of the 327-unit ICON community and the 179-unit Alta community. In today’s market, where far fewer new condos will be closing sales in 2008, 34 new condo sales closing escrow in March 2008 is simply rockin’!
BUT… What about those suffering prices per square foot? Isn’t that indicative of a struggling market?

Check out Chad’s blog, Pricing Trends in Downtown San Diego, for more information on how the price per square foot has been positively affected.

BUT… What about all of those “short sales” and bank owned properties commonly referred to as REO’s?

Check out Mike’s blog, Myth 2: re. Flood of inventory into the downtown market, for more information on 92101’s distressed sales market.

So no one is buying downtown and both sellers and developers are desperate out there?

Yeah, right.

What’s your theory? Is there still time in 2008 for buyers to “time the market?” Has the big plunge in pricing or the proverbial “bottom” that some seem to be waiting for already happened? Everyone has their theory- some are statistical, some use deductive reasoning, and others just have a hunch.

Share your theory with us by hitting reply to publicly post to this blog or send it to me, Pete Thistle, at pete@92101urbanliving.com.

MYTH # 2: There is a glut of inventory in Downtown San Diego. Sellers, Developers, and Banks are panic selling.

Not a day goes by in this real estate business that either a past client or current buyer asks me to elaborate on the “state of the market”, and in what direction things are headed. This is always the “trick” question, because none of us really have our crystal balls. If I had had one of those, I definitely would not have stayed up until 1:30 in the morning last night to watch the Padres loose to the Rockies in the longest game of Petco history…22 Innings! Here I digress…back to the “State of the Market” which ultimately comes down to Real Estate/Econ 101 and that fantastic invention…the supply demand curve. This is the point where current levels of Downtown San Diego inventory and the “public perception” (I.E. Myth #2) come into play.

In the case of inventory I tell my clients to never believe an article that speaks of “doom and gloom”, and then never give any hard numbers to consider (Union Tribune articles?). With that said, obviously the numbers never lie. It is not my job to sell anyone on a “glut” or not. I do not need to sell headlines, so I trust that after presenting the facts, you will ultimately be savvy enough to make up your own minds.

Before we get into the hard facts, let’s pull back and put some perspective and context on what has actually happened in Downtown San Diego relative to inventory levels since the beginning of 2007 until now…2nd Quarter of 2008. Last year we saw the delivery of over 1,892 new units to the overall inventory of Downtown San Diego homes. This was not only the largest push of inventory to Downtown ever, but in case anyone is paying attention; that is over 17% of the total inventory in all of Downtown (Currently @ 88 projects and 10,926 homes). This push also coincided with the decline of the subprime and financing markets. It is important to consider the historical perspective, because it caused the Real Estate Inventory to be separated into three distinct categories that still exist today: Resale Market, Developer Owned Sales, and the Distressed Market. This is so critical to understand, because inventory is given in total numbers even though each market has its own story, and its own sale statistics.

So finally the numbers: According to SDLOOKUP.com and Market Pointe Realty Advisors
• Resale Inventory is 601 homes or 5.5% of total inventory.
• Distressed Inventory is 83 homes or .76% of total inventory. (For obvious reasons, I have chosen to exclude Short Sales and Pre-Foreclosures b/c of their unknown timing and outcome)
• Developer Owned Unit Inventory is 743 new homes or 6.8% of total inventory. (This number excludes 707 units under construction, because full delivery is not until Spring of 2010)

Figure 1.0

Ok…if you are with me thus far, it means that we have covered the supply part of the equation. In order to examine demand, it is again beneficial to take a look at the historical figures leading up to last year’s statistics and the first Quarter of 08. For this task, let’s take a look at a couple of graphs. In Figure 1.0, you will see yearly numbers of resale home closings in 92101. Aside from the incredible numbers of 2005(the time when flipping was alive and well Downtown), 2007 looks very similar to 2003, 2004, and 2006.

Figure 2.0

In Figure 2.0, we see the Downtown new-home historical sales statistics. Yes, there is a significant drop from 2006 to 2007 because flipping and speculation came to a screeching halt. Investors were no longer buying from developers and sales offices only to turn around and put the same unit on the resale market for a higher price. This was a very significant change, because it started to strengthen the integrity of investments Downtown. We would no longer have speculators driving up the costs of homes unnecessarily, we now have a new generation of “long term” urban homeowners who would be buying into and supporting the infrastructure of Downtown and its’ specific neighborhoods.

Now that we are able to see both supply and demand sides, the QUESTION becomes: When will we see a shift in the supply demand curve?

ANSWER: As developer units deplete, a buyer will have less to choose from, and have to go to the resale market exclusively for their choices. New construction and developer units will continue to have some of the best deals in the Downtown market until the middle/end of summer 08. By this time (as it is already starting to happen) the availability of developer units in certain price ranges will be completely picked over or sold out. As this starts to happen, the resale market strengthens, because it no longer has to compete with the healthy developer incentives to make a sale. This will continue to happen for the next 2 years as there will be very little new inventory delivered (only 707 units), and only those people who ultimately have to sell will choose to enter the market. All information indicates that the distressed market will continue to get worse before it gets better. In the lower price ranges, this market will continue to generate good deals. But, overall the distressed market will not drive inventory, as over 90% of the foreclosures in Downtown are under $500k!

Myth #3: We haven’t reached the bottom yet, the best pricing is yet to come…

Hi Sports fans! Here is some news to stoke the conversation around the water cooler. Does anyone stand around a water cooler anymore? I saw an episode of The Office where Dwight moved the water cooler to be right next to his desk so he could get in on what’s going down. Well, you don’t have to be next to Mr. Schrute or a water cooler. I’m gonna tell you about some numbers I have seen thanks to the good folks at Market Pointe Realty Advisors regarding Downtown San Diego real estate.

Let us begin with resale numbers. The average price of a home in downtown San Diego actually went up. This is the price tag on the home at close of escrow. In 2007 it was $654,706 and this year it is $673,361. However, there is great news about that- the square footage is up from 1,165 in 2007 to 1,206 in 2008. So that means the price per square foot went down. You can see these aren’t drastic changes. It’s dipped $4 a square foot from 2007 to 2008. As opposed to the $49 per square foot dip that happened from 2006 to 2007. It looks like we are bottoming!

Now on to the New Home market. Much more of a drastic increase/decrease in the three categories. The average price for a new home shot up from $569,261 to $640,619 from 2007 to 2008. BUT, the square footage went from 947 square feet to 1,089. That’s 142 square feet! You were basically getting another room in the house. The price per square foot went from $601.37 down to $588.05. Overall in 2007 (Q1-Q4) price per square foot went from an average of $739.91 down to $601.37. If you bought new construction at the end of 2007 then congratulations!

So there you have it. The hard cold numbers. They have no soul, don’t rely on emotion or “what if”. They just are. You’ve seen it, you cannot unsee it.